A Forecasting Platform User Made $Nearly Half a Million on Bets on the Ouster of Maduro.
A bettor made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the event.
Market Movement in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody.
A particular user, which joined the platform in December and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement
Market statistics shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
However the odds had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made.
"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert.
A handful of other traders also profited large payouts from predicting the capture.
Political Attention Emerges
Some lawmakers are growing concerned.
A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a market.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to politics.
This sector were examined under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.
Insider trading is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting industry.
A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."
